Primary Surprise: CA Republicans Have a Path to End the Democrats’ Super-Majority in 2024

In a surprising development, the results in California’s March Primary election were good enough for Republicans that a real path exists for the party to break the Democrats’ Super-Majority control of the state legislature. But actually achieving that long-sought goal will take a lot of hard work in the state’s 2024 General Election.

“For the first time in six years we have a real chance of breaking the Democrats’ Super-Majority stranglehold on state government,” enthuses Carl DeMaio who leads the Reform California movement.

DeMaio should know about breaking the Super-Majority. That’s because he’s successfully done it before.

In June 2018, Carl DeMaio and Reform California helped lead a campaign that successfully recalled State Senator Josh Newman from office and handed the Republicans the one State Senate seat they needed to break the Super-Majority held by Democrats in that chamber. Unfortunately, Republicans lost seats a mere six months later and were relegated again to a Super-Minority status.

DeMaio says the March 2024 Primary results offer a path to end the Super-Majority once again. And ending the super-majority means that Republicans can actually block bad legislation from passing.

Republicans currently hold just 18 seats in the California State Assembly. They need to win 9 more seats to break the Super-Majority in that Chamber.

DeMaio says the March Primary results show Republican candidates are within striking distance of winning 12 seats in November. DeMaio says any seat where Republican candidates scored 43% or better of votes in the March Primary makes the seat worthy of investment.

“What is most remarkable about these good results is that the Republican candidates did so well despite having almost no support from the Republican Party and very little funding,” DeMaio notes.

“If we provide just a modest amount of support to these candidates and they run disciplined and aggressive grassroots campaigns, I am very optimistic of their chances to flip these seats,” DeMaio says.

Target Seats Republicans Need to Defend:

• Assembly District 7: Assemblymember Josh Hoover won 52.6%
• Assembly District 47: Assemblymember Greg Wallis won 48.5% of the vote.
• Assembly District 70: Assemblymember Tri Ta won 59.5%
• Assembly District 74: Assemblymember Laurie Davies won 55.4%

Seats Republicans Can Win:

• Assembly District 27: Joanna Garcia Rose won 51%
• Assembly District 35: Robert Rosas won 42.8%
• Assembly District 36: Republicans won 46.2% of the vote — and Jeff Gonzalez advanced to the runoff.
• Assembly District 39: Paul Andre Marsh won 46.7%
• Assembly District 40: Patrick Lee Gipson won 49.8%
• Assembly District 42: Ted Nordblum won 45.5%
• Assembly District 53: Nick Wilson won 43%
• Assembly District 56: Republicans won 43.7% — and Jessica Martinez advanced to the runoff.
• Assembly District 58: Leticia Castillo won 48.5%
• Assembly District 60: Republicans won 48.1% — and Ron Edwards advanced to the runoff.
• Assembly District 73: Republicans won 44% of the vote – and Scott Peotter advanced to the runoff.
• Assembly District 76: Kristie Bruce-Lane won 49.5% of the vote.

DeMaio says the outcome of the November General 2024 election will boil down to the overall political environment and whether the Republican candidates in each of the target seats he has listed will receive enough financial support to run viable campaigns.

“We know which seats we can win to break the Democrats’ Super Majority – now we just have to organize, fund and execute the most aggressive campaigns we can to get the job done,” DeMaio concludes.