How 2022 Offers California Republicans a “Roadmap” for Gains in 2024

With the 2022 California General Election in the rearview mirror, many national Republicans still lament the “Red Wave that wasn’t.” But in California, Republicans have a real reason to celebrate as they actually overperformed much of the nation — and shocked the national political establishment by ending up as the deciding factor in handing the House Majority to the Republicans.

There’s no doubt that California is still a deep blue state – as Democrats once again dominated all statewide races.  But Republicans did quite well in target seats – and showed surprising strength in seats that the Republicans spent absolutely no money in.

Carl DeMaio, Chairman of Reform California, says the 2022 election results offer what he calls a “Roadmap” for California Republicans to make gains in 2024 and beyond.

“Even though I’m pleased that California Republicans did surprisingly well in target seats in 2022, it is clear that California Republicans can win more seats than just the ones they received in 2022 if they continue to get their act together and begin to compete in more areas,” DeMaio says.

DeMaio’s analysis reveals more than two dozen seats in the Congress, State Senate, and State Assembly that Republicans could win with the right candidate and enough resources.

“But to win these seats the California Republicans need to get their act together – by recruiting better candidates, rebuilding their volunteer and donor base, and investing in better political infrastructure such as field programs, ballot harvesting, and data systems,” DeMaio says.

TARGET CONGRESSIONAL SEATS

In California, Republican House candidates are faring slightly better than nationally, earning 7.12% more of the vote than in 2020 at 40.85% — their largest share since 2010. Republicans captured 12 Congressional seats, but could win up to 18 seats in the next cycle or two.

SAFEST HOUSE SEATS (6)

CD-1 LaMalfa

CD-5 McClintock

CD-20 McCarthy

CD-23 Obernolte

CD-40 Kim

CD-48 Issa

TOSSUP HOUSE SEATS (8)

CD-3 Kiley

CD-13 Duarte

CD-22 Valadao

CD-27 Garcia

CD-41 Calvert

CD-45 Steel

CD-47 Porter (D)

CD-49 Levin (D)

HOUSE SEATS WITHIN REACH (3)

CD-9 Harder (D)

CD-21 Costa (D)

CD-26 Browley (D)

TARGET STATE LEGISLATURE SEATS

Republicans captured will hold 9 State Senate Seats and 16 State Assembly seats after 2022, but could win up to 14 State Senate seats and 29 State Assembly seats in the next cycle or two.

SAFEST SENATE AND ASSEMBLY (17)

SD-1 Dahle (R)

SD-4 Alvarado-Gil (D)

SD-12 Grove (R)

SD-32 Seyarto (R)

AD-1 Dahle (R)

AD-3 Gallagher (R)

AD-5 Patterson (R)

AD-8 Paterson (R)

AD-9 Flora (R)

AD-32 Fong (R)

AD-33 Mathis (R)

AD-34 Lackey (R)

AD-59 Chen (R)

AD-63 Essayli (R)

AD-71 Sanchez (R)

AD-72 Dixon (R)

AD-75 Waldron (R)

TOSSUP SENATE AND ASSEMBLY SEATS (19)

SD-6 Niello (R)

SD-16 Shepard (R)

SD-19 Ochoa-Bogh (R)

SD-23 Wilk (R)

SD-36 Nguyen (R)

SD-37 Newman/Min (D)

SD-38 Blakespear (D)

SD-40 Jones (R)

AD-7 Hoover (R) /Cooley (D)

AD-22 Alanis (R)

AD-27 Soria (D)

AD-36 Garcia (D)

AD-40 Valladares (R) /Schiavo (D)

AD-47 Wallis (R) /Holstege (D)

AD-58 Cervantes (D)

AD-67 Quirk-Silva (D)

AD-70 Ta (R)

AD-74 Davies (R)

AD-76 Maienschein (D)

STATE SENATE AND ASSEMBLY SEATS WITHIN REACH (8)

SD-5 Eggman (D)

SD-14 Caballero (D)

AD-35 Bains (D)

AD-39 Curillo (D)

AD-42 Irwin (D)

AD-56 Calderon (D)

AD-60 Jackson (D)

AD-73 Petrie-Norris (D)

Getting Ready for 2024 Target Races

“We can very much win these races if we do the hard work and have the funding and manpower to compete,” said DeMaio. “We’ve proven it with our work this cycle — now we just have to expand going forward.”

DeMaio is asking the public to join the campaign today to help grow Reform California’s voter outreach programs and elect reform-minded candidates in 2024.