2024 Saw Latinos Shift to Right in CA

With ballots almost fully counted in California following the November 2024 election, the data shows that Latino voters in the golden state have shifted far more Republican since 2020 — which may have delivered wins for Republicans in key state and local races. Could this trend continue and give California Republicans hope to break the state’s Democrat supermajority in 2026?

Carl DeMaio, chairman of Reform California and Assemblymember-elect for California’s 75th District, says the Latino vote share reflects that the Republican Party is changing.

“President Trump and his movement have expanded the Republican coalition to be a populist party of common-sense reform that is fed up with fake news and corruption and works to save everyone money, keep our communities safe, create jobs and businesses, and protect our children — and that message resonates with everyone, including the Latino community,” explained DeMaio.

Current estimates from the AP VoteCast indicate Latino voters nationally shifted 16 points in favor of Donald Trump this year versus 2020 — with Trump at roughly 43% support. That margin could even equal or surpass George W. Bush’s 44% Latino support in the 2004 election — which could make Trump the best performing Republican presidential candidate among Latinos in over 50 years.

In California, which has a 40% Latino population, 9 out of 12 majority Latino counties shifted an average of 4% or more toward Donald Trump since 2020. And Imperial County, which is 86% Latino, swung over 20% in favor of Trump. 

“Republicans can continue to make gains with the Latino community and flip key seats in California in 2026 — if they continue outreach and get their act together,” said DeMaio.

And there’s good reason to believe this can happen. In 2024, California Republicans have so far flipped one State Assembly seat — and are poised to flip another two seats in both the Assembly and Senate, for a net-gain of 3 seats. In State Assembly District 36, Latino Marine Veteran Jeff Gonzalez flipped a heavily Democrat and 59% Latino majority seat in a surprise win, which he credits to connecting with voters as peers and being active in the community.

“Most importantly: listen. Because [Latinos] feel unheard,” said Assemblymember-elect Gonzalez on a recent episode of the Reform California with Carl DeMaio podcast. “We want to be heard, our families want to be protected, and we want to earn our way just like everyone else does and not be pandered to.” 

DeMaio and Gonzalez assert that this populist, people-centered messaging and outreach to the Latino community was critical in 2024 Republican wins and can be built on for 2026.

Assuming current trends hold, Republicans will win 19 seats in the State Assembly and 10 seats in the State Senate for the 2024-2026 Session. They need to win 9 more seats in the Assembly and 4 in the Senate to break the chamber’s’ supermajorities — something DeMaio says is absolutely possible.

But DeMaio isn’t waiting for the state or national Republican Party to take these messaging lessons from 2024 and develop a solid, well-funded Latino outreach operation for 2026.

“The Republican Party in California is completely incompetent and ineffective, and that’s not changing anytime soon — only the grassroots can get it done, because they’ll roll their sleeves up and do the work,” said DeMaio. “No one is coming to save us — we have to save ourselves!”

That’s why DeMaio is supporting grassroots Latino outreach programs, such as the California Latino Voter Alliance (CLVA). The CLVA is working to recruit Latino candidates for office, as well as translate and disseminate the annual Reform California voter guide into Spanish — a pilot project they launched in 2024. The Reform California voter guide is the most-used conservative voter guide in the state, with over a million unique uses per election cycle.

DeMaio encourages the public to contribute to the California Latino Voter Alliance’s efforts so they can expand for 2026.

“I urge everyone to support grassroots groups in efforts to connect with voters and broaden our coalition — so we can finally end the insanity in California and rebalance our state’s politics in 2026!” DeMaio concluded.